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2008 Election Predictions: U.S. Senate
By Conservative Hawk | June 23, 2008
This election year is certainly going to be like none we have seen. Based on latest polling information, odds makers and recent election results, this is how it will probably play out. Naturally, these could change but as of today, these are my predictions.
The United States Senate is currently at 49 Democrats and 49 Republicans with 2 Independents who caucus with the Democrats so for the purposes of this assessment, we will say there are 49 Republicans and 51 Democrats.
There are currently 33 seats that are naturally up for election and 2 seats where the incumbent is running for an unexpired term for a total of 35 seats. Of those, 24 are held by Republicans and 11 are held by the Democrats.
TOSS UP SEATS
Most pundits have Colorado, Minnesota, Mississippi and New Hampshire listed as toss up seats. All are currently held by Republicans. While the polls say they are all toss ups, I say Colorado and New Hampshire will fall to the Democrats very easily, leaving only Minnesota and Mississippi in the toss up column.
SEATS LEANING TO ONE PARTY OR THE OTHER
Now let’s look at those seats that lean in one direction or the other. There are 5 seats either leaning Democrat or Republican, 4 of which are held by Republicans and 1 held by a Democrat. Alaska, Oregon and Maine are leaning Republican and will probably stay with the Republicans. New Mexico and Louisiana are leaning Democrat which means the Dems pick off another Republican seat. The Dems will hold on to Louisiana.
SEATS FAVORED BY ONE PARTY OR THE OTHER
And on to the seats favored by one party or the other. 11 states fall into this category with 9 seats favored by the Republicans and 2 favored by the Democrats. Alabama, Georgia, Kansas, Kentucky, North Carolina, Nebraska, Oklahoma, Tennessee and Texas are all held by Republicans and will remain in Republican hands after the election. Virginia is held by a Republican but will most certainly be another Democrat pick off while New Jersey is held by a Democrat and will remain in Democrat hands.
SAFE SEATS
On to the safe seats. There are 15 seats that are classified as “safe” for one party or the other. Arkansas, Delaware, Iowa, Illinois, Massachusetts, Michigan, Montana, Rhode island, South Dakota and West Virginia are all held by the Democrats and will remain in Democrat hands without question. Idaho, Mississippi (seat A), South Carolina, Wyoming (seat A) and Wyoming (seat B) are all held by Republicans and will remain in Republican hands without question.
New Senate Count: 55 Democrats, 43 Republicans, 2 toss up.
The Democrats could take as many as 57 seats if the two toss up seats go Democrat, but at this point, I am saying Al Franken in Minnesota is too much of a whacko and I think Norm Coleman will retain the seat by an historically slim margin. I am also predicting that Trent Lott’s old seat, currently held by Wicker will also remain in Republican hands.
But, for now, I am saying the Democrats will take no more than 56 or 57 seats, but if John McCain wins the Presidency, his Senate seat will be filled by appointment of Governor Janet Napaolitano (D-Arizona), and since she is barred from running for another term, she will probably appoint herself, which will give the Democrats another seat putting their majority at 57 or 58 seats.
RECAP
The Republicans can definitely say goodbye to these states:
Colorado
New Hampshire
New Mexico
Virginia
Republicans will possibly lose these states:
Minnesota
Mississippi (seat B)
Final Senate Count: Democrats may hold as many as 57 seats but will probably have a 55 to 45 majority.
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Topics: Democrat, Elections, Predictions, Republican |