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2008 Election Predictions: U.S. House of Representatives
By Conservative Hawk | June 25, 2008
All 435 seats in the House of Representatives are up for election. Currently, 236 are held by Democrats and 199 are held by Republicans.
Of those, 199 are classified as SAFE seats for the Democrats with an additional 13 being favored by the Dems. There are 147 considered to be SAFE for the Republicans with an additional 19 favored by the Republicans.
In addition to that, there are 22 Democrat leaning districts and 20 Republican Leaning districts.
LEANS DEMOCRAT
There are 22 seats that lean to the Democrats. They hold 20 of them and are most likely going to pick off Arizona 1st and Virginia 11th. There are no Democrat seats that lean Republican.
DEMOCRAT FAVORED
Of the 13 seats where the Democrats are favored, one is held by a Republican who is not seeking re-election. The Illinois 11th is most likely going to fall to the Democrats with State Senator Debbie Halvorson defeating whoever the Republicans fill that ballot slot with.
15 SEATS WITH NO CLEAR FAVORITE
There are 15 seats, which I will go into detail on in posts in the very near future, but for now, this is what I say is going to happen:
Of the 15 seats with NO CLEAR FAVORITE, 5 are Democrats and 10 are Republicans.
REPUBLICAN SEATS
Alaska – At Large No Clear Favorite
Minnesota – 3rd (Republican Retiring) Republicans hold on to this one. (Primary to be held on 9/9/08)
North Carolina – 8th – Republicans fork this one over.
New Jersey – 7th – Democrats pick this one off easily.
New Mexico – 1st – This one falls to the Dems without a problem.
New York – 13th – I think the Republicans will keep this one.
New York – 25th – Chalk up another pick off for the Dems.
Ohio – 15th – Dems easily win this one.
Ohio – 16th – GOP manages to hang on to this one.
Washington – 8th – No Clear Favorite
DEMOCRAT SEATS
Alabama – 5th – Dems should easily hold this one.
Florida – 16th – Republicans lost this one due to the Mark Foley Scandal. Easy take back for the GOP.
Kansas – 2nd – Republicans lost this one in 2006 but should be an easy take back.
Louisiana – 6th – Lost to the Dems in a special election earlier this year. Dems hang on to it.
Oregon – 5th – Democrats have increased their numbers in this district. They hang on to it.
RECAP
After all is said and done, I think in 2009, the House of Representatives will look like this:
244 Democrats
191 Republicans
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Topics: Democrat, Elections, Predictions, Republican |