Home > Democrat > 2008 Election Predictions: U.S. House of Representatives

THIS PAGE HAS BEEN UPDATED AS OF SEPTEMBER 25  WITH SOME PREDICTION CHANGES

This post goes along with my predictions on the United States Senate races. Click here to view that post.

All 435 seats in the House of Representatives are up for election. Currently, 236 are held by Democrats and 199 are held by Republicans.

Of those, 199 are classified as SAFE seats for the Democrats with an additional 13 being favored by the Dems. There are 147 considered to be SAFE for the Republicans with an additional 19 favored by the Republicans.

In addition to that, there are 22 Democrat leaning districts and 20 Republican Leaning districts.

LEANS DEMOCRAT
There are 22 seats that lean to the Democrats. They hold or pick off all 22 of them. Most. There are no Democrat seats that lean Republican.

DEMOCRAT FAVORED
Of the 13 seats where the Democrats are favored, one is held by a Republican who is not seeking re-election. The Illinois 11th is most likely going to fall to the Democrats with State Senator Debbie Halvorson defeating whoever the Republicans fill that ballot slot with.

15 SEATS WITH NO CLEAR FAVORITE
There are 15 seats, which I will go into detail on in posts in the very near future, but for now, this is what I say is going to happen:

Of the 15 seats with NO CLEAR FAVORITE, 5 are Democrats and 10 are Republicans.

REPUBLICAN SEATS

Alaska – At Large Republican held seat. Although the corruption charges against Don Young originally made this a possible Dem pick up, I am now calling it a Republican win. Correct Call
Minnesota – 3rd
(Republican Retiring) Republicans hold on to this one. (Primary to be held on 9/9/08).  Correct Call
North Carolina – 8th
– Republicans fork this one over. Correct Call – Dems Carry 55%
New Jersey – 7th – Democrats pick this one off easily. WRONG – (R) managed to hold on
New Mexico – 1st
– This one falls to the Dems without a problem. Correct Call
New York – 13th – Democrats pick it up. Correct Call
New York – 25th – Chalk up another pick off for the Dems. Correct Call
Ohio – 15th – Dems win this one. Correct Call (Dems in by 2,300 votes)
Ohio – 16th – GOP is going to lose this one and big. Correct Call
Washington – 8th
– Republicans will probably hang on, barely. Correct Call

DEMOCRAT SEATS

Alabama – 5th – Dems should easily hold this one. Correct Call
Florida – 16th – Republicans lost this one due to the Mark Foley Scandal. Easy take back for the GOP. Correct Call
Kansas – 2nd – Republicans lost this one in 2006 but should be an easy take back. Correct Call
Louisiana – 6th – Lost to the Dems in a special election earlier this year. Dems hang on to it. Wrong Call – GOP took it back
Oregon – 5th
– Democrats have increased their numbers in this district. They hang on to it. Correct Call
Texas – 22nd – Democrats took this one because Tom Delay resigned. Republicans take it back easily. Correct Call

The Hawk made the correct call in 14 races out of 16.  87.5% accuracy rating in specific races. Have to admit that 87.5% accuracy is nothing to brag about but nothing to sneeze at either.

RECAP

After all is said and done, I think in 2009, the House of Representatives will look like this:

253 Democrats                                (256 is the final number) – The Hawk was 98.8% correct
182 Republicans                             (178 is the final number) – The Hawk was 97.8% correct

If you enjoy this site, please show your appreciation by signing up for automatic updates. You will only receive email when I make a post. If I don’t make a post that day, you don’t get an email.

Enter your email address:

Delivered by FeedBurner

3 Comments, RSS

  • John Fredenberger

    says on:
    September 6, 2008 at 9:14 am

    I ADMIRE YOUR CLARITY OF THOUGHT AND STRAIGHT FORWARD MANNER OF PRESENTATION. GOOD WORK.

    AS AN OKLAHOMA REPUBLICAN LIVING IN PARIS, FRANCE, FOR 37 YEARS, I WILL VOTE FOR OBAMA. McCAIN CANNOT BE BOTH A MAVERICK TO THE REPUBLICANS AND DEFEAT A DEMOCRAT CONTROLLED CONGRESS TO ENACT HIS PROGRAMS.

    WE CANNOT GIVE RUSSIA, CHINA, IRAN AND AL QAEDA FOUR MORE YEARS OF AMERICAN STALEMATE.

  • Mark Turner

    says on:
    October 12, 2008 at 12:36 am

    I am an American living in Singapore, with a heavy preference for the GOP, so I am voting McCain. I’m a bit disappointed with Bush and the GOP this year, and McCain/Palin is not a powerhouse combination, but I think the alternative is much worse. Obama talks a great game, but has no real track record to back it up. Additionally, his voting record as the most liberal senator in congress, his association at all with Bill Ayers, Rev. Wright, and ACORN paint a picture more of a 60s-era radical than a mainstream modern-day politician. The current economic situation in America is worldwide, and it isn’t merely the fault of Bush/the GOP — a superiority complex (too important to fail) has been Wall Street’s attitude problem for many decades now.

  • Mark Turner

    says on:
    October 12, 2008 at 12:38 am

    …and has anyone thought seriously about the Bradley Effect? I think it will be very relevant this year on election day!

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

*