THIS PAGE HAS BEEN UPDATED AS OF SEPTEMBER 25 WITH SOME PREDICTION CHANGES
All 435 seats in the House of Representatives are up for election. Currently, 236 are held by Democrats and 199 are held by Republicans.
Of those, 199 are classified as SAFE seats for the Democrats with an additional 13 being favored by the Dems. There are 147 considered to be SAFE for the Republicans with an additional 19 favored by the Republicans.
In addition to that, there are 22 Democrat leaning districts and 20 Republican Leaning districts.
There are 22 seats that lean to the Democrats. They hold or pick off all 22 of them. Most. There are no Democrat seats that lean Republican.
Of the 13 seats where the Democrats are favored, one is held by a Republican who is not seeking re-election. The Illinois 11th is most likely going to fall to the Democrats with State Senator Debbie Halvorson defeating whoever the Republicans fill that ballot slot with.
15 SEATS WITH NO CLEAR FAVORITE
There are 15 seats, which I will go into detail on in posts in the very near future, but for now, this is what I say is going to happen:
Of the 15 seats with NO CLEAR FAVORITE, 5 are Democrats and 10 are Republicans.
Alaska – At Large Republican held seat. Although the corruption charges against Don Young originally made this a possible Dem pick up, I am now calling it a Republican win. Correct Call
Minnesota – 3rd (Republican Retiring) Republicans hold on to this one. (Primary to be held on 9/9/08). Correct Call
North Carolina – 8th – Republicans fork this one over. Correct Call – Dems Carry 55%
New Jersey – 7th – Democrats pick this one off easily. WRONG – (R) managed to hold on
New Mexico – 1st – This one falls to the Dems without a problem. Correct Call
New York – 13th – Democrats pick it up. Correct Call
New York – 25th – Chalk up another pick off for the Dems. Correct Call
Ohio – 15th – Dems win this one. Correct Call (Dems in by 2,300 votes)
Ohio – 16th – GOP is going to lose this one and big. Correct Call
Washington – 8th – Republicans will probably hang on, barely. Correct Call
Alabama – 5th – Dems should easily hold this one. Correct Call
Florida – 16th – Republicans lost this one due to the Mark Foley Scandal. Easy take back for the GOP. Correct Call
Kansas – 2nd – Republicans lost this one in 2006 but should be an easy take back. Correct Call
Louisiana – 6th – Lost to the Dems in a special election earlier this year. Dems hang on to it. Wrong Call – GOP took it back
Oregon – 5th – Democrats have increased their numbers in this district. They hang on to it. Correct Call
Texas – 22nd – Democrats took this one because Tom Delay resigned. Republicans take it back easily. Correct Call
The Hawk made the correct call in 14 races out of 16. 87.5% accuracy rating in specific races. Have to admit that 87.5% accuracy is nothing to brag about but nothing to sneeze at either.
After all is said and done, I think in 2009, the House of Representatives will look like this:
253 Democrats (256 is the final number) – The Hawk was 98.8% correct
182 Republicans (178 is the final number) – The Hawk was 97.8% correct
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